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India should impose strict lock downs & Section 144 across major cities this week

COVID-19 Outbreak

Executive Summary: India must impose Section 144 + lock-downs across key cities this week

  1. Countries which have acted early and strongly (South Korea, Singapore, Japan etc.) are able to “flatten the curve” and bring down cases compared to those which waited and watched (E.g. Iran, Italy, France and USA).
    a. Data from 1918 Flu Pandemic strongly suggested early strong action.
  2. Learning from Wuhan suggest actual undiagnosed cases are typically 5-20x of the diagnosed cases – India therefore likely has between 600-2500 cases.
  3. While containment efforts should continue, imposing a lock-down & sec-144 now vs. 30 days later might reduce deaths by 5x (Saving nearly 10,000 lives).

Countries which acted early and strongly are performing much better than those which did not

Learning from the 1918 Flu Pandemic indicate that early lockdowns are directely correlated with lower death rates

Learning from Wuhan in China show that actual undiagnosed cases are typically 5-20x of diagnosed cases

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